Events
According to scientists, the asteroid (99942) Apophis (Latin), named after the Egyptian god of chaos. Apophis, which was discovered in 2004, may collide with our planet in 2068.
In 2004, a team of scientists from the Institute of Astronomy at the University of Hawaii spotted an asteroid 330 meters wide. The researchers decided to give it the name Apophis in honor of the Egyptian god, who symbolizes darkness and evil, and is the eternal enemy of the Egyptian sun god Ra.
They've been tracking the asteroid since 2004, and according to their current data, it will approach Earth in 2029. Forty years later, they believe that there is a possibility that he will collide with Earth. In their opinion, Apophis is gaining great speed, allowing him to reach Earth and collide with it.
Read also: The most potentially dangerous asteroids: is there a risk for earthlings?
Yarkovsky effect
Size comparison (Empire State Building, Eiffel Tower, asteroid Apophis)
The reason why the asteroid is gaining high speed is due to the so-called “Yarkovsky Effect”. This effect occurs when some parts of an asteroid are warming faster than others.
Initially, scientists believed that Apophis would simply fly past Earth in 2068. The biggest problem with the Yarkovsky effect is that it makes it extremely difficult to predict the asteroid's trajectory over a longer period of time.
In fact, this effect could cause the asteroid to slightly change its route, so scientists believe that it is likely to collide with our planet.
Read also: Asteroids collided with Earth more often than previously thought
The shape of the asteroid Apophis
Even if the Yarkovsky effect is not taken into account, Apophis is still a danger, but not in 2068. This is reported by Dave Tholen, a researcher at the Institute of Astronomy at the University of Hawaii and co-author of the study.
Although the risk is not so high, the asteroid Apophis is still the third risk table in NASA's near-Earth observation program.
According to the data, the probability that an asteroid will collide with Earth on April 12, 2068 is 1 in 150,000 (or 0.00067%).
How bad is it?
The asteroid Apophis is three football fields wide and is full of nickel and iron. The impact on Earth is equal to 1,151 megatons in TNT equivalent. A similar event occurs on our planet about every 80,000 years.
The other two asteroids that are the first and second most at risk of collision with Earth are asteroid (29075) 1950 DA with a probability of 0.012% and asteroid (101955) Bennu with a probability 0.037%.
The result
Although the risk of an asteroid hitting Earth is low, it is not zero. Scientists will continue to monitor Apophis over the next few decades to know when and how to act before the asteroid Apophis causes any damage.