Events
A group of leading virus experts in the US has called for new, permanent restrictions on research in the face of the dangers of a new genetically engineered influenza virus that could kill half the world's population.
Scientists are currently complying with a 60-day moratorium on avian influenza research after two groups discovered a way in which it can become an infectious disease transmitted by airborne droplets.
The outbreak of this virus could be much worse than the 1918 “Spanish flu” epidemic, which killed tens of millions of people.
Professor Michael Osterholm, who is a member of the National Scientific Advisory Board on Biosafety in the US, asked well-known journals not to publish research on to this virus.
According to WHO (World Health Organization), avian influenza or H5N1 virus has so far infected 583 people, mostly in Southeast Asia, and killed 344 people. Currently, the virus can only be contracted through contact with infected birds.
However, a new study has shown that the virus can mutate through genetic manipulation and other methods, turning it into a form that can be transmitted to ferrets infected with air by droplets of cough and sneezing. Ferrets are a good example of how the virus will be transmitted from person to person, and this poses a huge threat to the whole world.
If the virus accidentally leaks as a result of terror, this could trigger a pandemic. Here we can consider several scenarios, ranging from crazy lone scientists to desperate despots and members of the doomsday cult, and countries willing to mutually assured destruction, bioterrorists and random crazy actions by an individual.
“I would hate to see smallpox leak from the lab, but I wouldn't be so concerned about it,” he said. “We would be able to hold her back. The same goes for SARS. But the flu virus could scare me to death, as it is the most famous “king” of transmission. Once he's outside the lab, he's unstoppable. It will be all over the world.”
However, the research that is currently underway may have positive results, such as the discovery of a better vaccine or better detection of the virus at an early stage of the pandemic. Scientists agree that restricting research or access to research data may not have the best consequences for science, as new advances often come from the most unexpected places.
However, in the worst-case scenario, half of the people you know and don't know will die. If the scale of the epidemic is 100 times lower, about 7 million people will die.
Since viruses are produced in the laboratory, when they leave the laboratory and reunite with existing strains, they can behave unpredictably and the risk is very high.
This month, virus experts from around the world are meeting at WHO in Geneva to assess the risks and benefits of avian influenza research.